Stephen Hawking has warned that artificially intelligent machines could kill us because they are too clever.
Such computers could become so competent that they kill us
by accident, Hawking has warned in his first Ask Me Anything session on
Reddit.
A questioner noted that Professor Hawking’s ideas about artificial
intelligence are seen as “a belief in Terminator-style ‘Evil AI’”, and
asked how he would present his own beliefs.
“The real risk with AI isn't malice but competence,” Professor
Hawking said. “A super intelligent AI will be extremely good at
accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren't aligned with ours,
we're in trouble.
“You're probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of
malice, but if you're in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project
and there's an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the
ants. Let's not place humanity in the position of those ants.”
Hawking said that eventually humans might become cleverer than their
creators. Our own intelligence is no limit on that of the things we
create, he said: “we evolved to be smarter than our ape-like ancestors,
and Einstein was smarter than his parents”.
If they become that clever, then we may face an “intelligence
explosion”, as machines develop the ability to engineer themselves to be
far more intelligent. That might eventually result in “machines whose
intelligence exceeds ours by more than ours exceeds that of snails”,
Hawking said.
Hawking said that it wasn’t clear how long such artificial
intelligence would take to develop — warning that people shouldn’t trust
“anyone who claims to know for sure that it will happen in your
lifetime or that it won't happen in your lifetime”.
But when it does happen, Hawking said, “it's likely to be either the
best or worst thing ever to happen to humanity, so there's huge value in
getting it right”. As such, we should “shift the goal of AI from
creating pure undirected artificial intelligence to creating beneficial
intelligence”.
“It might take decades to figure out how to do this, so let's start
researching this today rather than the night before the first strong AI
is switched on,” Hawking said. That echoed the warnings in the open
letter about AI that Hawking’s AMA had followed — in it, experts warned
that if we are lax about thinking about artificial intelligence,
computers will become too clever before we even realise.
Before the robots become so powerful that they accidentally kill us,
they might end up taking our jobs. Asked whether the rise of
artificially intelligent robots could lead to “technological
employment”, Hawking warned that it would depend entirely on how the
extra wealth that they create was distributed.
“Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the
machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably
poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth
redistribution,” Hawking said. “So far, the trend seems to be toward the
second option, with technology driving ever-increasing inequality.”
Friday, October 09, 2015
Stephen Hawking: Artificial intelligence could wipe out humanity when it gets too clever
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